NOVE has produced this second update as part of ongoing monitoring of the progress towards EU elections in May this year. Our previous update, focusing on political group dynamics, remains largely relevant, and should be read in parallel with this note.

We again include an overview of the most recent polling numbers, updated for February, and focus the deeper dive this time on how the four largest national delegations in the European Parliament will change for 2019-2024. Of course, not everything happens in the “big 4”. In a future update, we will look to how power shifts outside the main poles of influence – and especially Poland – may change the EU agenda in the years to come.